SIP Power: It works like wonder in long term

Hello Friends,
I was trying something new on my blog page. This time, I have created an excel sheet and tried to attach it on my page. I have done it through google Documents. Follow the link and you will be directed to the excel sheet.
This sheet is about the power of SIP (Systematic Investment Plan) in Mutual Fund. On the excel sheet, Put the value for the fields highlighted in Yellow (Initial Investment, SIP Amount and Number of Funds You want to invest it) It will Populate the table with different expected rate of returns. (In this case 12-20%).
Try it and do let me know your feedback If it works for you.
The link for the document-
https://spreadsheets0.google.com/ccc?key=tajZOzoI8GXt6RAGtsbQDeQ&hl=en#gid=0

Regards-
Nandlal

Commonwealth Games Expenses with No Common Sense

Recently, the central government disclosed that its total spend on the Delhi Commonwealth Games is likely to be Rs 11,494 crore. This number is disconcerting for two reasons.

Ø  One, because it is an order-of-magnitude away from its original estimate of Rs 655 crore.

Ø  Two, because the real cost of the games will be much higher if we were to include: 

Rs 16,560 crore additionally spent by Delhi government on upgrading the capital’s infrastructure — a new airport terminal, wider roads, new flyovers, Metro rail extensions, and so on; Real cost of labour - labourers got sub-minimum wages, worked in unsafe conditions, and were housed in sub-human tenements; The human cost of driving the poor out of streets and out of sight. 

The term ‘commonwealth’ originally meant public welfare, things that are for the greater good of society. Do the Commonwealth Games pass this commonwealth test? Is this Rs 28,000-crore drain on public funds for the greater common good?  

Before I respond to the question, let me clarify my position on the Games themselves. The desire to celebrate runs deep in our collective psyche. The teachings of a spiritual master, the creation of a nation, the birth of a child, celebrating each of them is important because they are our cultural compass; they remind us of things we value most.  

There are few things as uplifting as watching a sportsperson push physical and mental limits to achieve the incredible. The Commonwealth Games, like the Olympics, are a celebration of the human spirit of excellence. Therefore, in itself, the Games are a worthy endeavour.  

However, given the thousands of crores being spent on the Delhi Commonwealth Games, we need to ask if this is money spent wisely. As a country, we are constantly forced to compromise on funds. For instance, India needs more schools, and the existing schools need better infrastructure and more teachers. This will require us to spend 6% of our GDP on education, but we manage just over half that figure.  

Similarly, the country has very little sports infrastructure on the ground. To encourage sports, our first step has to be to ensure children get access to playgrounds, good equipment and quality coaching. To not have this, and to instead spend on a grand sporting spectacle sounds like we have got our priorities wrong.  

Despite the wonderful economic strides of the past two decades, the reality is that India is a poor country. A recent study by the University of Oxford measured levels of education, health and living standard in the world’s poorest countries. This study shows that India continues to be predominantly poor. In fact, there are more poor people in eight Indian states than in the 26 poorest African countries combined.  

Delhi has amongst the lowest occurrences of poverty in India, while at the other extreme, 81% of Bihar’s population is poor. No surprise then that many of the 100,000 laborers who worked for unfair wages to prepare Delhi for the Commonwealth Games were from Bihar.
The capital already boasts of some of India’s best infrastructure. Instead of spending crores to widen Delhi’s roads, should we not prioritize building roads and schools in Bihar where none exist in the first place? If we have Rs 500 crore to spare, should we use it to build basic sports facilities in thousands of government schools, or should we spend it all on renovating one stadium? 

In real terms, such choices are not all that easy to make. For instance, it is important for our cities to have great infrastructure, and money spent on a metropolis like Delhi will in turn catalyse our national economy. Our leaders have to constantly juggle and prioritize among many equally deserving needs, and it is not as if they are uninformed or wrongly intentioned. Over the last decade, the Indian government has taken important strides in social welfare and inclusive development. The National Rural Employment Guarantee Act and Sarva Shiksha Abhiyan are but two examples.  

However, it is not enough to have specific schemes such as the NREGA. Rather, equity and inclusion considerations must underlie each and every policy decision. Let me suggest that all public policy must recognize that GDP growth is meaningless if it does not uplift the most underprivileged of our country.  

How can we forget that for Rs 28,000 crore we could have established primary schools and health centres in tens of thousands of villages? Can we ignore this splurge the next time a malnourished child looks us in the eye?  

At times like these, it will serve our leaders well to recall Gandhiji’s talisman: “Recall the face of the poorest and the weakest man whom you may have seen, and ask yourself if the step you contemplate is going to be of any use to him. Will he gain anything by it? Will it restore him to a control over his own life and destiny? In other words, will it lead to Swaraj for the hungry and spiritually starving millions?”


By: Azim Premji, Chairman of Wipro

Connect the Dots: A book in a hurry

I still recall many of the stories about the people form “Stay Hungry Stay Foolish”, the debut book by Rashmi Bansal. It was a collection of the stories of 25 People who made their life successful and provided the world a better place to be in, in their own sense. It was undoubtedly a must read for anyone who wanted to be like any one of them and make their life big and successful.

However, In her second book “Connect the Dot”, Rashmi has failed to create that kind of aura in her writing. It seemed that the success of first book has propelled Rashmi to finish the book in hurry and this has lead to a not so good book on the stands.

This is a book about the stories of 25 non-MBA people who dared to dream and made it big. It has been segmented into 3 parts- “Jugaad”, “Junoon” and “Zubaan”. The first part is more or less interesting where we have few intresting stories but as we ahead with the book, one looses its interest. It is mainly because of the fact that going forward the book has not been able to connect to the reader in some way or the other. Some of the stories are too long resulting into a boredom. I don’t remember when was the last time, I left any book unfinished (atleast almost 100 that I have read) but Sorry to Miss Bansal, I could not make myself motivated to read it all. May be after Stay hungry…… My expectation from this one was too high or something else….

At the end, I would say, It was a nice read but just few stories that inspired me and motivated me. I hope next time You will have a better offer for your readers like me who has so big expectation after Saty Hungry…… All the very best.

Regards-

Nandy

World economy is recovering so is India- Here is the fact!!!

Statsguru--2010

Manufacturing growth in the US has surged to a 4-year high, the UK saw the highest rise since 1994 and JPMorgan Global PMI Output saw the strongest quarter since Q3 2007. With China and India doing well, the IMF has raised global output forecasts again, reduced the likely bank writedowns from $2.8 tn in October 2009 to $2.3 tn now, and overall levels of risks are steadily falling.

With Greece leading the way, however, country spreads remain elevated and there is a danger this could see commercial spreads rising. Banks have $5 tn of debt coming up for rollover in the next 36 months, and governments have large borrowing needs also — 6% of GDP for the Euro Area, 8% for the US and 14% for the UK, and numbers that are 1-2 percentage points lower in 2011. Consequently, the IMF estimates a credit gap of 2% of GDP in the Euro Area and the US this year and 10 per cent in the UK. A cross-sectional regression of 24 countries finds fiscal problems and likely banking writeoffs are the biggest explanator for higher sovereign spreads, followed by high current account deficits. In other words, while overall risk levels are lower, including those on finance, they are high enough to raise caution over global growth.

India is in a better situation with both business confidence and industrial production up to an all-time high. Industrial production is also more broad-based. While private consumption share in GDP growth has fallen, this is expected to recover — the share of the government is down and investment levels are rising. Foreign inflows are up and while that is good for the markets and companies that are raising funds, this is a problem for the rupee, and hence exporters. Inflation is a serious concern and while RBI has tried to ensure interest rates don’t rise, more aggressive action may be needed. With oil prices rising, oil marketing firm losses are all set to rise and the fiscal deficit is in trouble since oil subsidies have been seriously underestimated. Exceptionally high 3G bids could prove to be the saving grace.

Source: Business Standard

IPL4: New Auctions- Hard Facts

In my recent Twitter post I showed my apprehension regarding the 2 new teams getting sold for more than 3200M US Dollars. And After doing a bit of maths I have come to know that How correct I was. The total money raised by the 2 new teams are equal to the amount raised by all 8 teams combined 2 years back. On roughly estimates, The valuations of teams have gone 4 times in 2 years, at least the number suggests. As we don’t have a proper valuation method to calculate the value of each franchise, taking the value of two new teams we have come to a conclusion that the existing ones too have grown accordingly in last 2 years. And may be this is the fact that even the PE Players (Private Equity Players, fund houses those put their money in high growth business model) are very much interested in putting their money in this model.

Coming to the new buys of Pune and Kochi Teams, Its owner has paid staggering 370M US Dollar and 333M US Dollars respectively. The amount would be payable to IPL in equal installments for next 10 years. They will be in the action from next year onwards. One always wonder, after putting this much money just for getting the franchise, How would these owners would make money out of it? Well.. Stop thinking, It’s a simple arithmetic that will help us to understand How these owners will get money back and by what time they will reach their break-even point.
Let’s take the example of Team Pune that has been bough by Sahara-
Total Outflow For the First Year-
Heads Amount (US Million Dollars)
1. Franchise Fee ---  37 (370M dollars will be paid in 10 years)
2. Players Cost  ---   05 (Taking out the average amount being paid by rest of the franchises towards the players buyouts)
3. Stadium Cost ---- 01 (For 9 matches that will each franchise will own in its home town)
4. Travel and Boarding  ----0.5 (Again the average as per existing teams)
5. Coach, Support Staffs  ---- 0.5 (Estimated)
Total Outlay for the First Year----  44M USD


Now let’s talk about the inflow during the first year-
Major Source of Revenue Amount (in US Million Dollars)
1. TV/Media --- 7.2 ( Total divided now between 10 teams from 2011)
2. Central Sponsorship ---- 3 (60% of Share pool; Rest 40% to IPL)
3. Local Sponsorship ----- 2.75 (estimated average of past two IPL editions)
4. Gate Money ------ 1.8 (assuming 30000 paid tickets sold for Rs 300/- over nine matches @ an USD/INR exchange rate of 45/-)
5. In Stadium Ads ----- 1 (these are usually sold as package to local sponsors)
6. Merchandise ----- 0.25 (liberal Projection)
Total Inflow during the 1st Year----- 16


Total Loss 28M USD (For the First year after investing 44 M USD)


Even if we consider the number of matches getting to 94 in place of 60 in the current format nad we appreciate the inflow accordingly , It will give a loss of 19M USD. With the roughly calculations That I have, the new 2 teams will take a minimum of 7-8 years to break-even (that too being very optimistic). There are just few low priced franchises that is about to break-even (like KKR and Rajasthan Royals) but that also It will go to red once the revenue will be distributed among 10 teams in place of 9.
I think owners of the existing 8 teams would be feeling lucky with the kind of valuation they have. And I would not be surprised if they sell certain percentage of their stake to third party such as PE players or NHIs to improve negative cash flow. The IPL business model ensures that even after they break-even (after 5 years) they are unlikely to experience a significant growth in net profits as city-based teams have a limited market size of penetration.
With franchisees getting a declining share from the 6th year onwards, they will face financial pressures forcing sell-outs, either partial or fully unless their local sales are high, which is extremely unlikely. Part equity sale and new owners taking small stakes will happen for infusion of cash. Teams that continue to be laggards on the championship table will face huge financial crunch as they will not attract big advertisers.
There are those who argue that at the end of the 10th year the franchisee will be profitable as he will have no more financial obligations to IPL but by that time IPL will probably corner the central pool of revenues as well. So is the gestation period a 10 year wait for real profitability? How many owners are willing to fund a loss-making operation for just two months of ego-trip and Page 3 razzmatazz?
Perhaps the biggest risk that IPL, BCCI and Lalit Modi are taking is their arrogant belief that cricket can be sold and sold till the cash-counting machine collapses in India. It will. But by then there may not be enough to count.


Regards-
Nandlal

The Highlights of the Budget 2010-

-	Minimum Alternate Tax up from 15% to 18% on book profits
-	Fiscal deficit pegged at 5.5% of GDP
-	I-T dept to notify simple two-page Saral 2 form for individuals for current year
-	Personal income tax: Nil for income up to Rs 1.6 lakh, 10% for income bet Rs 1.6 -5 lakh
-	Personal income tax: Income between 5-8 lakh: Tax at 20%
-	Personal income tax: Above Rs 8 lakh, tax at 30%
-	Professionals with Rs 15 lakh income need account audit
-	Partial rollback of excise duty relief on large cars
-	To provide subsidy in cash instead of bonds for fertiliser, oil
-	Customs duty on gold, platinum imports raised to Rs 300 from Rs 200
-	Service tax to GDP ratio is 1%
-	Net revenue gain of Rs 43,500 cr from customs, excise proposal
-	Direct tax proposals result in Rs 26,000 cr loss; indirect tax yield Rs 45,000 cr gain
-	News agencies exempt from service tax
-	Some services hitherto not taxed would be brought under the purview of new Service Tax
-	Service Tax rates unchanged at 10%
-	No import duty on some equipment in road projects
-	Cut in duty for photovoltaic units
-	External commercial borrowing will be available for food storage industries
-	Clean energy cess on domestic, imported coal
-	Peak customs duty remains unchanged at 10%
-	Central excise on LED lights halved to 4%
-	Agricultural seeds exempt from service tax
-	Full excise cut on electric cars
-	For solar mission, solar power generating units rates are to be reduced by 5%
-	Cut on personal tax rates means saving of Rs 50,000 for income up to Rs 8 lakh
-	Partial rollback of excise duty relief on large cars
-	Peak excise duty hiked from 8% to 10%
-	Market borrowing were up to 3,45,000 cr. Enough to meet credit need of private sector
-	Duties on smoking and non-smoking tobacco products up
-	Excise duty on large cars, SUVs, multi utility vehicles hiked
-	Petroleum products: basic excise duty of 5% crude, 7.5% on diesel & petrol; 10% on other products
-	Structural changes in excise duties of tobacco, propose to extend excise duty
-	Revenue loss of Rs 26,000 cr on a/c of direct tax proposals
-	Surcharge for companies reduced to 7.5%
-	Due to direct taxes, result in a revenue loss of Rs 26,000 cr
-	Threshold limit for TDS applicability to be rationalised
-	Extended scope of presumptive taxes up to Rs 40 lac
-	Real estate sector now gets 5 years for completion instead of 4 years before
-	To boost tourism investment, offers investment linked tax deductions
-	Addl Rs20,000 deduction available for investment in infra bonds
-	Reduces current surcharge of 10% on domestic comp to 7.5%
-	Automation of excise, service tax already rolled out
-	FY11 market borrowing pegged at Rs 3.45 lakh cr
-	Govt to set up apex level Financial Stability and Development Council
-	FY13 fiscal deficit seen at 4.1%
-	Fiscal deficit seen at 4.8% in FY12
-	Allocates Rs 1,900 cr for UID project
-	Planned expenditure up 15% over 2009-10
-	Increase in non-planned exp up only 6%
-	Total exp proposed up 8.7% over 2009-10, to Rs 11 lakh cr
-	Taskforce to counter problems in Maoist affected areas. Adequate funds will be allocated
-	Allocation to Defence over Rs 147,000 crore
-	Technology advisory group to be set up under Nandan Nilekani
-	Smart card extended to NREGA
-	RBI to dole out more banking licences: Pranab
-	Sign language training centre for hearing impaired
-	Rs 4,500 cr for program of social justice, sr citizens, backward classes, handicapped
-	Rs 100 cr allocated for women farmers
-	Exclusive skill dev prog in textile and garment sector
-	Rs 48,000 cr for Bharat Nirman plan
-	Asks state govt to contribute for social security to workers in unorganised sector
-	Infra stocks spurt on higher allocation
-	To allocate Rs 22,300 cr to Health Ministry
-	Allocates Rs 100 cr for new pension scheme, to benefit 100,000 low income citizens
-	Khadi institutes get Rs 400 cr
-	GOI sign $150 mn deal with ADB for implementing Khadi programme
-	Rajiv Awas Yojana now ready' gets Rs 1,270 cr for FY11
-	Rs 7300cr in 2011 for backward sections
-	GST, Direct Taxes Code from April 2011
-	Housing loan: 1% interest subvention scheme extended, allocation Rs 700 cr
-	Urban dev allocation up more than 75% to Rs 5400 cr
-	Allocates Rs 1,200 cr for drought mitigation
-	Indira Awas Yojana: allocation up by Rs 10,000 cr
-	NMDC, SVJN stake sale to fetch Rs 25,000 cr in FY10
-	NREGS gets Rs 40,100 cr in FY11
-	Rs66,1000 cr allocateds for rural development in FY11
-	IIFCL disbursements at Rs 9000 cr by March 2010
-	School education outlay for FY11 at Rs 31,000 cr
-	States to get Rs 3,675 cr for primary education at rural level
-	To set up coal regulatory authority
-	Spending on social sector at Rs 137,000 cr
-	Rs 25,000 cr allocated to develop rural infrastructure
-	Growth to exceed 7.2% in this fiscal
-	Final FY10 GDP figure maybe higher than estimate of 7.2%
-	To set up National clean energy fund
-	Plan outlay for Renewable energy ministry up 61%
-	Power allocation doubles to Rs 5,100 cr
-	To set up 5 more mega food park projects
-	Allocation for road tansport Rs 19,894 cr
-	Farm loan repayment extended by 6 months
-	ECB to be available for cold storage
-	To provide Rs 400 cr to boost farm output in eastern India
-	Timely repayment of crop loans: subvention raised from 1% to 2%
-	Govt is committed to growth of SEZ to promote exports
-	Proposes allocation of Rs 200 cr for climate-resilient agricultural program
-	Extend 2% interest subvention for exports for another year
-	FY11 capital for PSU banks at Rs 16,500 cr
-	Extends interest subvention of 2% for handloom, handicrafts for 1 more yr
-	Propose new bill to address problems in corpoate sectors
-	Will augment assistance to RRBs to strengthen rural sector
-	RBI may give license to some more private sector players and NBFCs
-	Rs 1,900 cr addl capital in four PSU banks
-	Ownership and control clearly defined in FDI policy
-	To discuss Kirit Parikh report in due course
-	Subsidy for fertiliser sector to increase farm productivity
-	Govt to raise Rs 25,000 cr this year to meet cap expenditure requirements
-	GST and DTC can be introduced in April 2011
-	Steps to reduce public debt, paper to be presented in 6 months
-	Signs of food inflation going to non-food items
-	Need to review stimulus, move to fiscal consolidation
-	Double digit food inflation in 2009
-	Export figures encouraging; pvt investments can be expected
-	Concerned over emergence of double digit food inflation
-	18.9% growth rate in manufacturing sector in 2009
-	Final figure may be higher if earnings in last quarters are strong
-	Need to make recovery
-	Growth slows down to 6% in Q3 vs 7.9% in Q2 this fiscal
-	Focus shifts to non-governmental actors
-	3rd challenge: relates to problems in government system
-	2nd challnge: harden economic growth to make dev more inclusive
-	1st challenge: quickly revert to higher GDP growth path of 9%, cross double digit growth
-	Economy is in a better position than a year ago, however, challenges remain
-	Uncertainity was there on account of delay in monsoon, concerns about production and food prices
-	Pranab Mukherjee starts announcing Union Budget
-	Bond yields steady ahead of Budget